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November 21, 2024

Social programs – how to fix them

We face demographic headwinds which suppress growth and strain Social Security and Medicare.

We need to decide upon a Social Security and Medicare schedule of benefits that we want, as a society, to provide for our seniors, that design to include the age from which those benefits should be paid: decide on a period of phase in for any change from current plan.

Crunchy, but ‘Left’

Go back to the original design of Social Security and create trust funds that are properly ring fenced, make the whole of Medicare (including parts B and D), part of the “paid as earned” plan. Require that social programs are fully funded to meet earned benefits.

Phase in period during which current underfunding is amortized.

Cutting across this is the question of universal healthcare – one version of which makes all healthcare provision a current government expense.

Crunchy, but ‘Right’

Phase out all Social Security and Medicare programs – to be ‘fair’ the phase out should be over an entire working life, e.g.:

Age Group:Retirement Benefits (as % of today)
Under 15 0%
16 -2520%
26 -3540%
36 – 4560%
46 -5580%
56+100%

Given this policy, federal government will be ‘out’ of providing retirement benefits early next century.

Social programs already accounts for over 50% of federal government non interest expenditures and this will grow towards 60%, all else being equal, by 2040.

This is the big item – increasingly, federal government is a savings and insurance plan.

– It is perfectly rational to see the role of federal government in these terms (as provider of income and healthcare in our old age): so long as we face up to the cost that this imposes on all of us and make sure that the federal government has the resources to meet promised benefit obligations.

– It is also perfectly rational to hold the view that this is NOT the federal government’s role, but in objecting, understand and accept that we are where we are, with a lot of Americans who are retired or about to retire and who are entirely reliant on federal social programs for their old age (and who have been paying payroll taxes for their whole working lives to entitle them to those benefits) and there is no way of wishing away that truth.

Higher Taxes

Current level of social provision:
some social safety net, current Social Security and Medicare provision in old age which assures dignity and some level of comfort underwritten by the federal government)

Lower Taxes

Reduced social provision (which means, potentially, more cases of poverty/reduced government access to healthcare – for seniors in our families and anyone upon whom hard times fall). (40% of us rely mainly on Social Security/Medicare for our retirement)

Both positions are fine (and plenty in between). Not fine is to be ‘for’ lower taxes, and not reduced social provision: (the math does not work)

The 48 senators and 170 or so (Republican) House members who have signed the Americans For Tax Reform “Tax Payer Protection” pledge have made their choice (but have not been specific on how social provision should be reduced: it is time they are specific).

At the same time, it is time for the other 315 members of Congress to get specific.

President Trump has promised that he will “stand behind” Social Security and Medicare (Tulsa Rally – 6/20/20). What does “stand behind” mean? As in “to pull away the chair”?

Crunchicrant tries not to be churlish, but maintaining current benefits (if that is what is meant by “stand behind”) also means “raise taxes”: yet President Trump has offered only vague promises of reduced taxes, during the campaign.

The Trump campaign promises are incompatible with each other.
Vice President Biden says “I’ll protect and strengthen [social security]” – tweet 8/14/20. So he is also saying raise taxes.

He has said he would do: Corporate tax to 28%; Payroll taxes of 12.4% on pay over $400,000 p.a.; repeal elements of the Tax Cut & Jobs Act. Unfortunately, it is not going to be enough: the Tax Foundation computes increased tax revenue to the Federal Government, from the Biden tax plan, to be (Crunchicrant’s translations to per per US person data) – $918 per capita in 2022 and $832 per capita in 2030.

The 2019 federal deficit is $2,995 per US person – say $1,300 more than is sustainable – and just the increase in Social Security and Medicare cost (per Administration’s 2021 budget document – baseline) 2019 to 2030 will be $2,200, per US person per year: the federal government needs to find additional revenues of $3,500 per US person per year. The fiscal imbalance is serious and will not be resolved by shaking down corporations and 1%ers. We must all be involved.

So, for this biggest of all issues, scarcely debated at all, we have, in the

  • Republican corner: no plan at all; and
  • Democrat corner, a plan which does not (close to) get it done.

Electoral politics in 2020.

But the issue does not go away.

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